Market Prediction

In yesterday's trading, JCI fell below 2%, some market players were worried that Tapering could potentially cause outflows and weaken exchange rates in several developing countries.

Meanwhile, yesterday in RDG, Bank Indonesia stated that the inflation rate in the future will still be low, so that interest rates can still be maintained at the level of 3.5%. In addition, BI also estimates that Indonesian economy in 2021 will be in the range of 3.5% - 4.0% with a current account deficit of 0.6-1.4%. Bank Indonesia is optimistic that the Fed's Tapering will not be as bad as in 2013.

On the other hand, the Fed Minutes released on Wednesday showed that most officials have agreed to start Tapering this year on condition that the economy goes according to their targets.

JCI closed down with a bearish candle. The stochastic indicator weakened again, MACD histogram moved negative (line deadcross) and volume fell. JCI broke down support at 6,040 and JCI is moving back to a bearish trend in the short term. If JCI moves bearish again, it will test the immediate support at the range of 5,913 – 5,947. If it is able to strengthen the resistance is in the range of 6,040 – 6,056.

Commodities Review

• Crude oil prices fall almost 3% in trading Thursday (19/8/2021) after the US central bank or the Federal Reserve gave a tapering signal.

Macro Economic News

• The Bank of Indonesia left its key 7-day reverse repurchase rate unchanged at a record low of 3.5% on August 19th, 2021, as expected amid a low inflation outlook.
• The value of loans in Indonesia increased 0.50 percent in July of 2021 over the same month in the previous year.
• The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for a fourth straight period to a new pandemic low of 348 thousand in the week ending August 14th, below market expectations of 363 thousand and signaling a continued recovery in the US labor market even as many US states struggle to contain rising coronavirus cases amid the spread of the Delta variant.

Corporate news

• PT Map Active Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPA) in the second quarter of 2021 posted a revenue growth of 35.12 percent to IDR 2.87 trillion. Meanwhile, in the same period the previous year, it was IDR 2.12 trillion.
• PT Sarimelati Kencana Tbk (PZZA) until the first semester of 2021 posted a net profit for the current period of IDR 31.52 billion, a 210 percent increase compared to the same period in 2020 of IDR 10,475 billion.
• PT Cahaya Bintang Medan Tbk (CMBF) recorded a decline in financial performance in the first quarter of 2021, which posted an operating income of IDR 9.16 billion. This figure is 72.4 percent lower than the same period the previous year of IDR 33.3 billion.
• PT Madusari Murni Indah (MOLI)'s share ownership in its subsidiary PT Molindo Raya Industrial (MRI) was diluted by 2.62 percent. That was after PT Sejahtera Investama Indah (SII) made a capital increase in MRI. The affiliate transaction was carried out by issuing 52 million shares or 3.15 percent of MRI's authorized capital to SII. 

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